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Copiers and Followers Update – WEEK 45 (November 5th to November 11th)

By 14 de November de 2018 No Comments

The portfolio grew for the second consecutive week, corroborating the “MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND” scenario. It is 2 weeks with yield higher than 5%, in this range + 5.10% against + 2.10% of the S & P500 ($SPY). The market seems to be focusing on fundamentals again after the US election. It was a good earnings with the week of “earnings report”. $OIL deserves attention as I consider it entered “BEAR MARKET”. The Fed left interest rates unchanged last week but presented an optimistic assessment of the economy and the job market, reaffirming expectations of a December interest rate hike. China is expected to release industrial production figures for October next Wednesday. At the same time, the Asian country will publish reports on investments in fixed assets and retail sales. Recent data have begun to show that China’s economy may be losing steam, raising concerns about the potential consequences of the US-China trade dispute.

Here is the detailed weekly income of the stocks that make up the portfolio:

  • $CYBR +13.84% (earnings reported nov-07)
  • $CNC +10.05%
  • $HCA +7.07%
  • $UNH +5.95%
  • $ORLY +4.19%
  • $MA +4.00%
  • $NTAP +3.48%
  • $CDW +3.45%
  • $MSFT +3.21%
  • $ROST +2.73%
  • $TJX +1.01%
  • $SNE +0.76%
  • $ILMN +0.35%
  • $ESNT +0.30% (earnings reported nov-09)
  • $CRM +0.10%
  • $CACC -0.25%
  • $BURL -0.62%
  • $AAPL -1.45%
  • $MTCH -18.10% (earnings reported nov-06)
  • ETFs
  • $SSO +4.30%
  • $XLV +4.13%
  • $DIA +3.02%
  • $XLY +1.90%
  • $QQQ +1.26%
  • $EWZ -5.17%

I closed the position of $WCG and opened $CNC instead. Centene Corp seems to me a lot stronger than WellCare right now. Centene (CNC) has a strong potential for multi-year sustainable revenue growth and above-average profits. The company has multiple drivers for this growth in the Managed Care segment, which accounts for about 95% of the company’s total revenue. These drivers include the acquisition of Fidelis, the expansion of Ambetter, and the growth of Medicare Advantage. Recent election results make Medicaid expansion more likely in states like Kansas, Wisconsin, and Maine, where newly elected governors of these states are in favor of expanding Medicaid. Expansion efforts at Fidelis and Ambetter will increase revenue / earnings growth rates above Centene’s average for several years.

My long-term thesis for $MTCH shares remains fundamentally intact, in fact, it seems stronger than ever. The 17% decline occurred in one day (earnings reported Nov-06) shortly after a stellar quarter. Paying subscribers in the Tinder app, the company’s flagship car, grew 61% this year from 2.6 million to 4.1 million. I will continue to look forward to reaping the fruits of Match Group.

Following the release of $CYBR earnings (Nov-07), Oppenheimer raises its target from $ 75 to $ 89 and maintains its “Outperform” rating. Good results for the portfolio at sight.

I have my eye on $UBNT and $PGR. Possibly this week I will do some more balance in the portfolio. By the end of the month I still expect the results of $ROST $TJX and $CRM.

Good business to all! May the best week ever come!

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